Thursday, November 09, 2006

The punchline

Sorry, just incase you didn't understand my conclusion to my other post, I thought I'd summarise:

Australia is not warmer now than it was in the past at 3am, or 6am or 9am or noon or 3pm or 6pm or 9pm or midnight. The stats prove that at all of these times, Australia has not got significantly warmer.

Hence it would seem therefore, that global warming is not a problem in Australia. Thankyou


Count Iblis said...

Again, if you don't give a confidence interval then your statement is worthless. Better still, you should constrain climate models by looking for what parameters they make predictions for Australia that are outside your 95% confidence interval.

Jonathan Lowe said...

actually sorry Count Iblis, obviously your knowledge in statistics is well, worthless. Because I have stated the F values and p values for every test done. Each one proved a non significant increase or decrease in temperature, in that the only reason why there was any increase or decrease was due to natural variation and that's it.

Count Iblis said...

You just wrote in a response to another posting that the 95% confidence interval is something like 0.4 +/- 0.7 per century.

Well, THAT'S a pretty worthless result, given that the average temperatures have only increased by 0.6 degrees in more than a century, according to climate scientists.

You could only have obtained a significant result if the temperature had increased at more than twice the rate observed by climate scientists.

Jonathan Lowe said...

Count Iblis,
show me one journal peer-reviewed paper that proves that Australia's temperatures have increased by 1.2 degrees per year. I would be most happy to duplicate their study.

Jonathan Lowe said...

in fact I found a few for you:
Karoly, D.J., and Braganza, Attribution of recent temperature changes in the Australia region.

They only tested maximum and minimum temperatures unfortunetly, which seems to be the unfortunete norm. They fail to provide a statistical test or significance too...ohh well...looks like my reasearch will be more better.