Friday, April 18, 2008

World Ice Levels Continues to Grow

World ice levels have continued to grow with levels now more than 1 million square kilometers more than normal. The northern hemisphere has shown a continued increase to almost normal levels. Whilst in the south, the Antarctic continues to grow!

Friday, April 11, 2008

Last post for a while

This will be the last post for a while, before I head over to Europe for various reasons. When I return (6 months to a year) I will be going full steam ahead with my research. Thanks for all the comments in the past, and hopefully soon we'll be back up and running.
Cheers
Jonathan Lowe

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Climate change could see pubs run dry

with emphasis on the word "could"

"It will mean either there will be pubs without beer or the cost of beer will go up," Jim Salinger said.

"Most areas in Australia where malting barley is cropped are likely to experience producing declines," he said.

So maybe it might be better to see if malting barley has decreased in volume in the last years. But yes it has! From 148,000,000 tonnes in 1974 to 138,000,000 tonnes in 2005.

Surely due to global warming!

Thursday, April 03, 2008

A timelineof climate change science (politics)

Matthew Knight at CNN has devised a timeline of the most important discoveries of climate science. Have a read of them as shown below:

Did anyone else see a pattern? The early discoveries are all about scientific discoveries. In the last decade, almost all the advancements are political and not scientific. If we did a timeline of Physics or Chemistry or Mathematics, do you think we would get political advancements in the highlights? No. They are pure sciences. Just goes to show that climate science is now more political than scientific.

1824

French physicist Joseph Fourier is first to describe a "greenhouse effect" in a paper delivered to Paris's Académie Royale des Sciences.

1861

Irish physicist John Tyndall carries out research on radiant heat and the absorption of radiation by gases and vapors including CO2 and H2O. He shows that carbon dioxide can absorb in the infrared spectrum, and it can cause a change in temperature. Tyndall famously declares: "The solar heat possesses. . . the power of crossing an atmosphere. But when the heat is absorbed by the planet, it is so changed in quality that the rays emanating from the planet cannot get with the same freedom back into space. Thus the atmosphere admits of the entrance of the solar heat, but checks its exit. The result is a tendency to accumulate heat at the surface of the planet."

1896

Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius first proposes the idea of a man-made greenhouse effect. He hypothesizes that the increase in the burning of coal since the beginning of industrialization could lead to an increase in atmospheric CO2 and heat up the earth. Arrhenius was trying to find out why the earth experienced ice ages. He thought the prospect of future generations living "under a milder sky" would be a desirable state of affairs.

1938

British engineer Guy Stewart Callendar compiles temperature statistics in a variety of regions and finds that over the previous century the mean temperature had risen markedly. He also discovers that CO2 levels had risen 10 percent during the same period. He concludes that CO2 was the most likely reason for the rise in temperature.

1955

John Hopkins University researcher Gilbert Plass proves that increased levels of carbon dioxide could raise atmospheric temperature. By 1959 Plass is boldly predicting that the earth's temperature would rise more than 3 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century.

In the same year chemist Hans Suess detects the fossil carbon produced by burning fuels, although he and Roger Revelle - director of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography - declare that the oceans must be absorbing the majority of atmospheric carbon dioxide, they decide to conduct further research.

1958

Revelle and Suess employ geochemist Charles Keeling to continuously monitor CO2 levels in the atmosphere. After only two years of measurements in Antarctica an increase is visible. The graph becomes widely known as the Keeling Curve and becomes an icon of global warming debate and continues to chart the year on year rise in CO2 concentrations to this day.

1970

The first "Earth Day" takes place on April 22nd across America. Twenty million people participate in the event organized by Democratic Senator Gaylord Nelson. It follows and precedes a series of U.S. Department for Energy reports highlighting concern about global warming

1979

The first World Climate Conference is held in Geneva attended by a range of scientists and leads to the establishment of the World Climate Program.

1985

Scientists at the World Climate Program conference at Villach in Austria confidently predict that increased CO2 concentrations will lead to a significant rise in the mean surface temperatures of the earth. A hole in the ozone layer is discovered over Antarctica.

1987

Officially the hottest year on record to date. Three years later the 1980s is confirmed as the hottest decade since records began.

1988

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). The IPCC will provide reports based on scientific evidence which reflect existing viewpoints within the scientific community.

Parts of the Mississippi river are reduced to a trickle and Yellowstone National Park becomes a tinderbox. In June, Dr James Hansen of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies delivers his famous testimony to the U.S. Senate. Based on computer models and temperature measurements he is 99 percent sure that the [human caused] greenhouse effect has been detected and it is already changing the climate.

1990

The IPCC delivers its first assessment on the state of climate change, predicting an increase of 0.3 °C each decade in the 21st century -- greater than any rise seen over the previous 10,000 years.

1992

The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development -- better known as the Earth Summit -- takes place in Rio de Janeiro attended by 172 countries. It is the first unified effort to get to grips with global warming and leads to negotiations which result in the Kyoto Protocol.

1995

The hottest year on record. Four years later the 1990s are confirmed as the hottest decade in 1000 years.

The IPCC report for that year states that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate."

1997

The Kyoto Protocol: Industrialized countries agree to cut their emissions of six key greenhouse gases by an average of 5.2 percent. Under the terms of the agreement each country -- except developing countries -- commits to a reduction by 2008 -- 2012 compared to 1990 levels. Notably, the U.S. Congress vote 95 to 0 against any treaty which doesn't commit developing countries to "meaningful" cuts in emissions.

2001

Newly elected U.S. President George W. Bush renounces the Kyoto Protocol stating that it will damage the U.S. economy. The third IPCC report declares that the evidence of global warming over the previous 50 years being fueled by human activities is stronger than ever.

2003

Europe experiences one the hottest summers on record causing widespread drought claiming the lives of over 30,000 people.

2005

Following ratification by Russia -- the 19th country to do so -- in November 2004, the Kyoto Protocol becomes a legally binding treaty. America and Australia continue their refusal to sign up claiming reducing emissions would damage their economies.

2007

175 countries in total have ratified the Kyoto Treaty. Under new Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, Australia ratifies the treaty. The IPCC report for a fourth time states that "warming of the climate is unequivocal" and that the levels of temperature and sea rise in the 21st century will depend on the extent or limit of emissions in the coming years.

Former vice-president Al Gore and the IPCC jointly win the Nobel Peace Prize for services to environmentalism.

2008

160 square miles of the Wilkins Shelf breaks away from the Antarctic coast. Scientists are concerned that climate change may be happening faster than previously thought.

Following the Bali talks/roadmap, negotiators from 180 countries launch formal negotiations towards a new treaty to mitigate climate change at the Bangkok Climate Change Talks

Sunday, March 30, 2008

Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?

Oops!

An already relentless melting of the Arctic greatly accelerated this summer—a sign that some scientists worry could mean global warming has passed an ominous tipping point.

One scientist even speculated that summer sea ice could be gone in five years.

"The Arctic is often cited as the canary in the coal mine for climate warming," said Zwally, who as a teenager hauled coal. "Now as a sign of climate warming, the canary has died. It is time to start getting out of the coal mines."


And just like lazarus, this arctic canary has risen from the dead, in what is seen had the biggest ever recorded increase in ice in the arctic.

The Facts

2007 shattered records for Arctic melt in the following ways:


Still to be released is NASA data showing the remaining Arctic sea ice to be unusually thin—another record


(or) The Facts:

2008 shattered records for Arctic growth in the following ways:

- Never before has the arctic increased in ice as such quickness and magnitude, so that earth's total ice is at 1 million square kilometers greater than normal.

Friday, March 28, 2008

Al Gore next president?

a few weeks ago he had no chance, with odds posting around at $500 on betfair. But now some democrat's are thinking about giving him their vote because of the hillary - obama standoff. Gore's odds have come into $40, which means the market views him at around a 2.5% chance.

Still small of course, but reasonably probable

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Massive ice shelf collapses, but ice near record high

As reported by the Australian:

A CHUNK of Antarctic ice about seven times the size of Manhattan has suddenly collapsed, putting an even greater portion of glacial ice at risk.

British Antarctic Survey scientist David Vaughan said the collapse was the result of global warming.

While icebergs naturally break away from the mainland, collapses like this are unusual but are happening more frequently in recent decades, Mr Vaughan said.

Mr Vaughan had predicted the Wilkins shelf would collapse about 15 years from now.

Scientists said they are not concerned about a rise in sea level from the latest event, but say it's a sign of worsening global warming.

Such occurrences are “more indicative of a tipping point or trigger in the climate system,” said Sarah Das, a scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute in the US.


However, as reported here

The full Wilkins 6,000 square mile ice shelf is just 0.39% of the current ice sheet (just 0.1% of the extent last September). Only a small portion of it between 1/10th-1/20th of Wilkins has separated so far, like an icicle falling off a snow and ice covered house. And this winter is coming on quickly. In fact the ice is returning so fast, it is running an amazing 60% ahead (4.0 vs 2.5 million square km extent) of last year when it set a new record. The ice extent is already approaching the second highest level for extent since the measurements began by satellite in 1979 and just a few days into the Southern Hemisphere winter and 6 months ahead of the peak. Wilkins like all the others that temporarily broke up will refreeze soon. We are very likely going to exceed last year’s record. Yet the world is left with the false impression Antarctica’s ice sheet is also starting to disappear.

Indeed that is true, because of current the world ice levels has no reached 1 million square kilometers above normal.

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Novermber 1922 - Arctic warmth, vanishing seals, melting icebergs

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Oz heat due to climate change, world freeze is not

Elissa Lawrence reports:

SOUTH Australians are being warned to brace for harsher and more regular heatwaves amid fears climate change may be occurring faster than forecast.

South Australian Bureau of Meteorology regional director Andrew Watson said he was confident the current record heatwave – which yesterday stretched into its 13th day – was a result of global warming, and it was evidence the rate of climate change could be gaining pace.


However, maybe climate change is only effecting Australia because world wide temperatures have plummeted.

Sunday, March 09, 2008

More Non Consensus

Only about one in three Alberta earth scientists and engineers believe the culprit behind climate change has been identified, a new poll reported today.

The expert jury is divided, with 26 per cent attributing global warming to human activity like burning fossil fuels and 27 per cent blaming other causes such as volcanoes, sunspots, earth crust movements and natural evolution of the planet.

A 99-per-cent majority believes the climate is changing. But 45 per cent blame both human and natural influences, and 68 per cent disagree with the popular statement that "the debate on the scientific causes of recent climate change is settled."