Friday, May 11, 2007

South East Australian drought over

well it looks as though the drought that has inflicted south eastern Australia is now over. Well at least according to the stats. It naturally doesn't stop politicians claiming global warming as the reason behind this. But lets look at the stats shall we?

Given below is the expected and actual rainfall in south eastern Australia

Expected Actual
Jan 45.0 41.6
Feb 40.8 41.4
Mar 38.3 37.3
Apr 39.9 52.0
Total 164.0 172.4


So we have a 5.1% increase in rainfall than the norm.

Also in Victoria:

Expected Actual
Jan 37.0 55.7
Feb 36.6 31.1
Mar 40.2 38.5
Apr 46.5 42.4
Total 160.3 167.7

A 4.6% increase in rainfall since the start of the year.

So can we please stop all this worst drought in 1000 or 100 years crap? Currently, as proven from the above statistics given from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, there is no drought.

14 comments:

Elizabeth said...

The National Climate Centre Disagrees with you and they are actual professionals.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml

Anonymous said...

Average rainfall is one matter. As a farmer, I can tell you that droughts are not broken until a series of heavy falls can top up groundwater supplies, and flood rivers and creeks. Falls of 100mm plus are required, with regular follow-ups to ensure normal flows will last. Average rains or slightly over are not going to cut it. You must make up for previous shortfalls.

Jonathan Lowe said...

actually, considering the data i got comes from there, it is obvious that it agrees:

"With the demise of the 2006 El NiƱo event, 2007 has seen a general improvement in rainfall across Australia. Above average rainfall has been widespread across southern Australia for the four month period January to April 2007"

this year has seen greater than normal rainfall in victoria so far. We can decide to base a drought on a 6 month time scale, 12 months, 3 years whatever, but we are currently in the last 6 months getting good non drought-wrothy rainfall.

elizabeth said...

The product if you had read it say that the short term rain has not broken the drought. We still have a long term drought. So your comment that the drought is over is entirely false.

Phil_b said...

Elizabeth, The National Climate Centre agrees with Jonathan. The only 2 significant areas in Australia with below average rainfall over the last 3 months are western Tasmania and south of Shark Bay in WA, both of which have almost no agriculture, excepting Carnavon, which is 100% irrigated relying on rainfall further inland, which incidentally has had well above average rainfall in recent years.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi?map=contours&variable=drought&area=aus&period=3month®ion=aus&time=latest

Jonathan is also right that we are going into a La Nina, which means higher than average rainfall across southern Oz, although a drier northern Oz.

I'll leave alone whether agricultural practices that cannot be supported by normal (around average) rainfall are advisable.

Anonymous said...

Sometimes you dip below for periods of time, sometimes you go above. If you drop below for too long (prolonged drought) and then return to statistical average or slightly better rains for a period, you have not broken a drought on the ground or in the stream/underground. You are still on the negative side of the ledger until get enough above average rain to make up the shortfall.

I am not challenging the stats. It is encouraging to see patterns changing again. I am just pointing out how it is on the ground. This holds as true for untouched land as much as it does for land supporting agriculture. The average is a long term product of many years of varying rainfall, droughts, floods and in between. Here is hoping we get that La Nina and go well above the 'average' for long enough to put the extra water where it needs to be to maintain a long-term average.

The debate on agricultural practices is a seperate matter entirely.

Jonathan Lowe said...

yep goof points anonymous, i'm just trying to point out that the amount of dry victoria has got in the past 6 months is nothing. Most people wouldn't know that we've had higher than average rainfall over the past 6 months.

more rainfall here
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21752874-661,00.html

Jonathan Lowe said...

proper link for above comment

Anonymous said...

Wateva u say. I believe there is a drought!!!

Anonymous said...

U OBVIOUSLY know THERE IS a drought!! The prices for hay has not gone down any so the average rainfall is still not enough AFTER a LONG drought!!!!!!

Phil_B said...

I'm old fashioned, I insist words mean something.

I also insist there be an objective measure of whatever is claimed.

Anonymous, if hay prices haven't come down then that is objective evidence the drought isn't over (with some lag).

And in case this sounds sarcastic, I'm saying hay prices prove you point.

Anonymous said...

Hahaha Mr Johnothan Lowe. You make me laugh...actually laugh is an understatment! I am sitting here pissing myself literally at your incompetence and narrow minded opinions!
You say that the drought is NOT bad..right? but do you know how hard it is for so many Australians???
And for your information (hopefully it will not overflow your brain capacity) it is the worst drought in 1000 years!
Mabey it has rained- but does it honestly stop the drought being here? I think not!

Jonathan Lowe said...

Anonymous, the drought was bad, there is no doubt about that and a lot of Australian's suffered from it, but the last 6 months have seen greater than average rainfall and hence the drought is finished.

As for the worst drought in 1000 years? Can you give me some statistical proof of this? You can't, because records only go back 100 years, and even in that 100 years it is not the worst drought.

So the fact that you suggest that it is the worst in 1000 years gives you no credibility.

Please back up your comments with some sort of proof rather than taking imaginary numbers out of the air.

One Salient Oversight said...

Well this prediction came to naught.