Thursday, May 10, 2007

More Evidence of the sun’s influence over global warming

With all the amazing statistics that have provided strong evidence that temperatures in south east South Australia are highly influenced by the sun, the question still lies if this is a one off for the area or if similar patterns are found elsewhere in Australia.

This article will look at all the areas of Australia that we have already looked at with regards to temperature rate of change as we approach the maximum and after the maximum, as well as temperature differences between 3am,6am and the minimum temperature.

Firstly, Giles – found in outback central western Australia. We find that temperatures at 9am are significantly higher than at 6am, and that minimum temperatures are significantly higher than temperatures at 3am and 6am. Such findings agree with those found in south east South Australia.

Alice springs shows a significant increase in temperature anomalies at 9am as compared to 6am, and a significant decrease at 6pm as compared to 3pm. The decrease in the last graph is startling and obvious. And once again minimum temperature anomalies were significantly higher than at 3am and 6am, with the increase being up to 1.2 degrees per 100 years.

Tennant creek recorded significant increases in temperature at 9am as compared to 6am, and significant decreases at 6pm as compared to 3pm. We also found significant increases in minimum temperature anomalies to that of 3am and 6am temperatures at the rate of 1.0 degrees per 100 years.

The fourth place in a row, the Kimberley, as seen significant increases in temperature at 9am as compared to 6am, and also once again found significant decreases in temperature at 6pm as compared to 3pm. Also once again, significant increases in minimum temperature at the rate of around 1.0 degree per 100 years was found in comparison to 6am and 3am anomalies.

The Pilbara failed to record a significant increase in temperature at 9am as compared to 6am (p=0.09), however it must be noted the last 11 years have recorded greater temperatures at 9am. Temperatures at 6pm were significantly lower than at 3pm. Minimum temperatures showed again, an increase in difference between itself and temperatures at 3am and 6am.

For south of Perth, significant changes in the morning as well as the afternoon as well as changes in minimum temperature compared to 3am and 6am.

These patterns are getting predictable, a little boring, but drastic evidence for the case of the sun being the major cause of global warming. If Co2 was the major cause of global warming then we would not see significant increase in the rate of change of temperature as we approach the maximum and we wouldn’t see decreases in the rate of change of temperature as we move away from this. Minimum temperature anomalies should be very comparable to temperature anomalies at 3am and 6am, but the increasing pattern only suggests that the Australia is warming up shortly after the sun has risen, and this temperature increase has increased over time, especially of late.

2 comments:

Phil_B said...

Firstly, South Perth is one of those inner city locations that have seen dramatic changes over the last 50 years, both in density of housing and the fact a major freeway now runs through it. I wouldn't draw any conclusions about causes of temperature changes there.

Secondly, I suggest you explain the significance (meaning) of differences between temperature anomalies.

For example,

... has seen significant increases in temperature at 9am compared to 6am, and once again we find significant decreases in temperature at 6pm as compared to 3pm.

What this means is we are seeing significant increase in warming between 6am and 9am, and a significant increase in cooling between 3pm and 6pm over the last x years. This is consistent with other sites we have looked at where we found significant increases in daytime temperatures but much less or no change in nighttime temperatures.

We must conclude that both more daytime warming and more nighttime cooling are occuring.

Once again, we find significant increases in minimum temperature at the rate of around 1.0 degree per 100 years (at 9am?) in comparison to 6am and 3am anomalies.

What this means, is using minimum temperature as a measure of nighttime temperatures has led to overstating the amount of nighttime warming by as much as 1.0 degree over the last century.

This is consistent with our earlier findings that daytime warming is the primary cause of increases to both daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and further evidence that the current practice of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology of using the median value of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures as the daily mean temperature may well be giving a misleading picture of temperature changes and net heat gain, i.e. climate warming.

Sorry to put this in a comment, Jonathan, but I don't have an email for you.

regards,

pxbradley AT gmail DOT com

Anonymous said...

great ideas and reports.

following up on phil_b's comment, yes, a better explanation of the meanings and reasons would be beneficial. why are the following types of claims and statements are the case.

"If Co2 was the major cause of global warming then we would not see significant increase in the rate of change of temperature as we approach the maximum and we wouldn’t see decreases in the rate of change of temperature as we move away from this."

why is that? is that in opposition to how temperature and related derivatives of temperature (change, rate of change, etc) would behave with 'global warming gases' present?