Gust of Hot Air is a blog outlining my own statistical analysis of Australian Weather. I am Jonathan Lowe, and have completed by Bsc(hons) in statistical analysis as well as my Master of Science. I have done 2 years of my PhD
There is a lot of statistical information regarding climate change and I intend to provide statistical analysis into the area to prove if the recent well advertised rise in temperature is at all statistically significant. Results will be uploaded here on a regular basis
Jonathan, The largest area of 12 month drought (SE portion of NT) shown on the Bureau of Met map does not include any stations! (click on ‘point data’ in ‘map type’ box). How are these maps contoured? – how many stations do they include? Am I missing something?
Interior NT is dry because of this years very quiet cyclone season (contrary to the BoM's forecast).
The Pilbara should be similarly dry. They get most of their rain from cyclones. The 12 month average probably reflects a late season cyclone last year.
Jonathan – Also, the Sydney Morning Herald has a regular ‘eco’ section and keeps a weekly update on the area of drought (by percent) in NSW. According to the SMH, this week it is at 47.1%. Presumable the SMH do not use the B of M figures as their map shows clearly that this stands at 0% over the last 12 months and at best 15% if you eyeball the data on the 36 month B of M map.
Jonathan, Looking at the anomaly graph on the ABOM site it would appear that rainfall has increased in the last few decades compared to the 1920's and 30's.
6 comments:
Jonathan, The largest area of 12 month drought (SE portion of NT) shown on the Bureau of Met map does not include any stations! (click on ‘point data’ in ‘map type’ box). How are these maps contoured? – how many stations do they include? Am I missing something?
good work Lank you are right. The stations are shown here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/
I might look into that a little further unless others have information?
Interior NT is dry because of this years very quiet cyclone season (contrary to the BoM's forecast).
The Pilbara should be similarly dry. They get most of their rain from cyclones. The 12 month average probably reflects a late season cyclone last year.
Phil
Jonathan – Also, the Sydney Morning Herald has a regular ‘eco’ section and keeps a weekly update on the area of drought (by percent) in NSW. According to the SMH, this week it is at 47.1%. Presumable the SMH do not use the B of M figures as their map shows clearly that this stands at 0% over the last 12 months and at best 15% if you eyeball the data on the 36 month B of M map.
Jonathan, Looking at the anomaly graph on the ABOM site it would appear that rainfall has increased in the last few decades compared to the 1920's and 30's.
good pick up again Lank, and Chris, this post shows that post 1950 rain has been 9.5% greater than pre 1950
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