Friday, October 26, 2007

Wrong predictions on active 2007 hurricane season

2007 saw predictions of a very active hurricane season. The predictions even got upgraded to be even worse. NOAA predicted a 85% chance of having a season above normal, and only a 5% chance of having a season below normal. And didn't the newspaper love it. Plenty of reports here and here.

But the result? well with hurricane season ending Nov 30th, is looking well below normal. According to COAPS: “Unless a dramatic and perhaps historical flurry of activity occurs in the next 11 weeks (ACE is based on calendar year, not traditional June-November hurricane season) , 2007 will rank as a historically inactive Tropical Cyclone year for the entire Northern Hemisphere.

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1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Not unexpected - even the IPCC 2007 said (last line P8 SPM, I think, small print)there is no evidence of more tropial storms. Kerry Emanuel - cited by Al Gore as the source of his hurrian hysteia said the same thing - check out his home page - not hard to find

6:48 pm

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