The Dreaded Drought

We've been told over and over again, how Australia's lack of rainfall has been due to global warming. The website climate change in Australia, co-hosted by the BOM and CSIRO talk about the massive changes in rainfall and projected droughts due to global warming. This despite, as we pointed out, no statistically significant changes in trends of rainfall Australia or locally wide.

But as World Climate report shows, America too is having certain parts with increased rainfall and others with less rainfall. Must be due to global warming right? Well they also show that the last 50 year of rainfall in Canada has been greater than the 50 before that.

Strangely enough however, the BOM come back and suggest that the our current lack of rain [(despite non significance)] is caused not by warming, but by cooling:

Australia’s climate may continue, at least in the short term, to be influenced by the unusual state of the oceans to the north, and particularly northwest, of the continent. These have been cooling since June when, historically, they would have been expected to warm as the La Niña evolved in the Pacific. These cooler than normal waters inhibit the formation of northwest cloudbands, which are a major source of winter and spring rain for central and southeastern Australia during La Niña years.

Hmm..but well maybe we should eat more kangaroo to decrease global warming. But no need to go full on in the meat race, as last month was the 7th coolest month this century.

Time to Ban TV's

MOST current plasma TV models would be banned from sale in Australia as early as October next year under onerous mandatory energy requirements recommended in a report commissioned by the Federal Government.

The consulting firm Digital CEnergy, which prepared the report for the Government's Australian Greenhouse Office, also recommends a second tier of even tougher restrictions that would then ban almost all current LCD models from the market in April 2011.

Differences between minimum and overnight temperatures

Previously we discovered that minimm temperatures in Australia have been on the increase since world war 2 at a rate of 0.522 degrees Celsius in the last 64 years.

However we also found that temperatures at Midnight, 3am and 6am have not seen any significant increases or decreases in temperature over the same time period. This is quite strange, as it has long been thought that the minimum temperature is a good representation of overnight temperatures. Obviously with different trends occurring in each case, we suggest that it is not. However, because no scientific literature has even bothered to look at time based temperature, this type of discovery goes unnoticed in the science world, and we still see dozens of studies looking at the consequences of night time warming.

So why is this occurring? Well lets have a look at the differences between the minimum temperature and temperature anomalies at 3am and 6am, which is shown in the graph below.



The graph above shows an obvious increasing, and statistically significant trend. Minimum temperature anomalies from the second world war up until now have been increasing at a greater rate than temperatures at 3am and 6am. If the minimum temperature were to be a good representation of overnight temperatures then we would expect no trends in the data, and the average "bar" to be around zero.

I've included two parabolic trend lines to highlight the differences between the two variables. It would seem that 6am anomalies closer resemble minimum temperature anomalies. This makes sense, as the minimum temperature generally occurs closer to 6am than 3am. In fact, in about the last 10 years, there has been no major trend between 6am and minimum temperature anomalies.

It is no surprise then that we have seen in the last 10 years, and indeed since 1973, no significant increase in minimum temperature.

Hence in more recent times, the minimum has been a reasonable variable to measure overnight temperature (despite being about 0.05 degrees Celsius above temperatures at 3am and 6am), but was a poor measure of overnight temperature before 1975.

Even the ABOM agrees with us here (aside from other irregularities), in that minimum temperatures have not seen any increase since 1973.

As shown on Andrew Bolts forum, Bob Forster, suggested the following:

If you ignore the distraction of the bars for individual years, and just look at the 5-year running mean, you will discover that most of the warming was in a single step-change in the latter half of the 1970s.

That jump in Australian average temperature correlates with the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976/1977. The Shift marks a change from Pacific Decadal Oscillation cool phase to warm phase – thus reversing a cool shift in the early 1940s. This 76/7 climatic step-change correlates with an abrupt reduction in the upwelling quantity of cold deep water in the equatorial eastern Pacific. Put another way – before the shift there was a preponderance of La Niña conditions, and after it El Niño dominated. Change in upwelling quantity on this scale (it varies a lot - but say, from about 26 Sverdrups before the Shift to about 18 Sv after) is an inertial event of huge magnitude. I don’t see how human-caused CO­2 emissions could have done that.

An interesting theory, one that I believe will be heavily scrutinized no doubt. But whatever the reason we can conclude that the weather and temperature has been changing since the second world war, and it has not been just a gradual increase in temperature as global warming alarmists cause.

Temperatures at night have not been increasing, and the minimum temperature has not increased in the last 30 years, a period where is more closely resembles overnight temperatures.

And what of differences in temperature anomalies between other times? We'll look at them next.

Countless Exaggerations in Climate Change Report

In the new Climate Change in Australia report the predictable catastohpic scenarios are outlined. The report, done jointly by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology is very surprising, and it would seen that the Bureau of Meteorology haven't bothered to look at their own stats to come to the reports conclusions.

It predicts lower rainfall, but even by their own Bureau of Meteorology website, this hasn't occurred.

It suggests we will have less spring and winter rainfall, with drops of up to 40 per cent in some southern parts of Australia by 2070. But once again by the Bureau's own website spring rainfall and winter rainfall have shown no decrease at all. Even in the much talked about southeastern Australia there has been no significant decrease in annual rainfall as well as spring and winter rainfalls.

Did the Bureau of Meteorology actually check their own statistics before they issued such a report?

What is interesting is the actual website set up by the two teams, Climate Change in Australia.

Have a look at the observed changes. They state that we have seen significant increases in temperature at both day and night, however my own analysis of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's data proves that Australia has not seen any night temperature increase at all.

The website also claims that south western Australia is becoming dryer as is New South Wales and Queensland, however northern Australia has seen an increase.

So global warming increases certain parts of Australia's rainfall and decreases others? What an evil deceptive thing this global warming is. It is true that south western Australia has seen a decrease in rainfall, but southern Australia has seen a slight increase, and northern Australia as publicised has increased as well. Geez, even the much talked about Murray Darling Basin has seen no significant increase or decrease in rainfall. Who would have thought that if you read the papers!

So according to the climate change in Australia website, global warming makes some places wetter and other places less wet. Just what those places are, and more importantly why, no-one knows.

I might be pushing some straws here, but don't you think there is a slight chance, just a slight one, that these changes (some up ,some down) we are seeing is due to natural variation? Not one single honest statistician could say otherwise. This is a prime example of finding pattens in randomness.

The CSIRO and BOM should be shamed for such terrible inexcusable analysis of their own data.

This, unfortunately, is completely outrageous.

Australia: Only hot during the day

We showed earlier that Australian temperatures at Midnight, 3am and 6am have not significantly increased, however as soon as the sun rose, temperatures at 9am and Noon showed significant increases. Whats more, surprisingly maximum and minimum temperatures have increased since the second world war.

So what happens at 3pm, 6pm and 9pm? The results below show is.

Temperature at 3pm showed a significant increase. (t = 3.8, p < 0.01)at a rate of 0.85 degrees Celsius per 100 years. The graph shown below of this, despite a bit of variability is strong, significant and obvious.



However temperatures at 6pm proved not to show a significant increase (t = 0.37, p = 0.7) as shown on the graph below.



The last 5 years have shown above normal temperatures at 6pm, but the overall trend is not significant and not clearly obvious to the eye.


Simiralily at 9pm there as been no significant increase in temperature (t = 1.4, p = 0.15). Although it has to be noted on the graph below, that like 6pm, the last 5 years have all seen greater than normal temperatures at this time.



So we've shown that Australia is only heating up at times when the sun is making an impact, that is from 9am till 3pm. Both 6pm and 9pm temperatures have seen increases, but they are not significant. Overnight temperatures are not moving either way.

So how come therefore we see increases in minimum temperature when overnight temperatures are not increasing? Isn't the minimum temperature meant to be an accurate measure of overnight temperature? We'll show you in the next article, that not only is the minimum a poor measure of overnight temperatures, that there could possibly be some big irregularities with the minimum temperature before the mid 70s and after.

Near Record Ice levels in Southern Hemisphere

Whilst there has been a lot of talk about record lows for the northren hemisphere ice levels, does the fact that the southern hemisphere is on track to record new record highs reach the media outlets?

How to save 1/10th of a polar bear

Bjorn Lomborg is not skeptical about human-caused global warming. But he’s checked the maths behind many of the warming scares:

Consider a tale that has made the covers of some of the world’s biggest magazines and newspapers: the plight of the polar bear. We are told that global warming will wipe out this majestic creature. We are not told, however, that over the past 40 years - while temperatures have risen - the global polar bear population has increased from 5000 to 25,000.

Campaigners and the media claim that we should cut our carbon dioxide emissions to save the polar bear. Well, then, let’s do the math. Let’s imagine that every country - including the United States and Australia - were to sign the Kyoto Protocol and cut its carbon dioxide emissions for the rest of this century. Looking at the best-studied polar bear population of 1000 bears, in the West Hudson Bay, how many polar bears would we save in a year? Ten? Twenty? A hundred? Actually, we would save less than one-tenth of a polar bear.

If we really do care about saving polar bears, we could do something much simpler and more effective: ban hunting them. Each year, 49 bears are shot in the West Hudson Bay alone. So why don’t we stop killing 49 bears a year before we commit trillions of dollars to do hundreds of times less good?

As soon as the sun rises, so does the temperature

We previously found that overnight temperatures have not increased, with all of Midnight, 3am and 6am not having any significant increase in temperature, hence providing strong evidence that Australian temperature have not increased overnight. This despite increases in the daily minimum.

But what happens when the sun makes its appearance? How will the temperature record respond then? Using our designated Australian weather stations, we found that at 9am, since 1943, we have had a very significant increase in temperature as shown on the graph below:



The increase is highly significant (t = 5.5, p < 0.01) and is increasing at a rate of 1.1 degrees Celsius per 100 years. This is, as one would expect, very strange. In that how can we have such a huge and significant increase at 9am and yet 3 hour previous have no swings in temperature at all? What is causing this massive sudden increase at 9am? Could it possibly be the sun?

Well lets have a look at Noon and see if the same issue is occurring.



And yes, as shown on the graph above, one again a big and significant (t = 4.3, p < 0.01) increase in temperature is occurring. The increase is at 0.99 degrees Celsius per 100 years.

So here we have a situation that at Midnight, 3am and 6am we detect no significant increases or decreases in temperature since the second world war. The suddenly at 9am and Noon, the temperature increases suddenly and dramatically.

Australia is definitely heating up. But maybe its only when the sun is out? We'll look at 3pm, 6pm and 9pm next.

Somebody needs to build an ark

Mick Keelty warns at climate change could cause refugees to flee countires due to sea level rises. He warns that China's available land could dramatically shrink and millions could be on the move.

All this from an at most 59cm increase in sea level in the next 100 years. Amazing.

The ABC take it one more step further suggesting that:

Ultimately, rising seas will likely swamp the first American settlement in Jamestown, Va., as well as the Florida launch pad that sent the first American into orbit, many climate scientists are predicting. In about a century, some of the places that make America what it is may be slowly erased.

Rising waters will lap at the foundations of old money Wall Street and the new money towers of Silicon Valley. They will swamp the locations of big city airports and major interstate highways.

Its amazing what 59cm can do.

Australia not increasing in temperature overnight

Previously we showed that Australian temperatures since world war II have increased dramatically. Maximum's and minimum temperatures have both increased at a significant rate.

However what is happening to overnight temperatures? We have also previously discussed the terrible statistical technique of somehow defining the average temperature as being the average of the minimum and maximum and have long suggested that time based temperatures, where the time is kept constant (unlike max/min temps), is a far better way to analyse temperature and will also provide a lot more meaningful information.

So lets have a look at what is happening for Australian temperatures overnight. In particularly Midnight, 3am and 6am.

As shown below temperatures at midnight show no obvious trend, and statistically there is no significant increase or decrease in temperature (t = 1.6, p = 0.1)



Similary, at 3am as shown below we have also found no significant increase or decrease in temperature (t = 1.27, p = 0.2).



And not surprisingly, also at 6am as shown on the graph below, we have found that Australia has not recorded any significant increase or decrease in temperature (t = 1.3,p = 0.17)



So if Australia is not warming up at night, then how come we have seen a s significant increase in minimum temperatures? We will answer that question shortly, but in our next article we will look at what happens to Australia's temperatures during the day, starting off in the morning at 9am.