Sunday, December 16, 2007

Daying Summer/Winter effect goes against man made global warming

We previously showed that overnight temperatures had no summer/winter effect, as well as showing that summer has increased in temperature significantly greater at 6pm and 9pm than winter. If global warming was caused by CO2, then there should be no summer/winter effect, in that, temperatures are increasing relatively constant at any time. However this has shown not to be the case, and 6pm and 9pm temperatures increased more during summer when the sun is still int he sky than in winter when it is long set.

But what happens at 9am, Noon and 3pm. The details are below.

Interestingly, Winter was increasing at a significantly greater rate than summer at 9am (t = 5.62 , p 0.001). Likewise, Noon temperatures in winter were increasing in temperature significantly greater than summer since 1950 at Noon(t = -3.5, p = 0.001). However at 3pm, there was no significant summer / winter effect (t = -1.3, p = 0.21)

Lets look at the individual temperatures or summer and winter. No significant temperature increase was found during summer at 9am (t = -0.76, p = 0.45), Noon (t = 0.51, p = 0.61) and 3pm (t = 1.92, p = 0.06). Note here that an increase in temperature was found at 3pm in summer, but was only just insignificant.

During winter, temperature increases were significant at 9am (t = 7, p < 0.001), as well as at Noon (t = 4.7, p < 0.001) and 3pm (t = 3.1, p < 0.01).

So what does this all mean? What it means is that during winter we are seeing over time no temperature increasing trends overnight, then a dramatic increase in temperature at 9am. Increases over time in temperature continue at Noon and 3pm (although not as strong), and then from 6pm onwards there is no significant increases in temperature over the years.

In Summer we also are seeing no positive trends in temperature overnight, but it is taking longer to warm up. Positive trends in temperature over the years start to occur at around 3pm and last till 9pm, and from then on no increase.

In other words, in winter, massive increases when the sun rises, in summer, increases from the middle of the day until sunset. Perhaps this is because a warmer sun will increase a colder place quicker than it will a warmer place. I'm not entirely sure.

But either way, we are seeing a very strong summer/winter effect. Something that should be present if global warming was mainly sun induced, and would not be present if the world was warming up due to CO2.

But is it just the sun that is causing the warming? What about clouds and sun duration? We'll take a look at that next.


Phil said...

in winter, massive increases when the sun rises, in summer, increases from the middle of the day until sunset.

The times of day when we see the daily minimum and maximum temperates, a curious coincidence given min/max is the climate warming metric everyone uses.

Not only does it seem warming is overstated by using min/max, it makes me suspicious that someone is fiddling (with) the data.

Phil said...

Jonathan, do you have a description of the BoM temperature adjustments. I drew a complete blank, but they do adjust the data because I found several studies comparing BoM adjustments with Hadley and GISS adjustments.

Jonathan Lowe said...

no i don't, but I'd love to get my hands on them if anybody else knows about them. I would imagine that the 3 monthly temperature data is not adjusted.

Phil said...

raz, scamming and spaming all rolled into one post.

My advice to Jonathan is delete this stuff. It's just noise and drives people away.

IM not so HO, as aways.