Sunday, March 30, 2008

Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?


An already relentless melting of the Arctic greatly accelerated this summer—a sign that some scientists worry could mean global warming has passed an ominous tipping point.

One scientist even speculated that summer sea ice could be gone in five years.

"The Arctic is often cited as the canary in the coal mine for climate warming," said Zwally, who as a teenager hauled coal. "Now as a sign of climate warming, the canary has died. It is time to start getting out of the coal mines."

And just like lazarus, this arctic canary has risen from the dead, in what is seen had the biggest ever recorded increase in ice in the arctic.

The Facts

2007 shattered records for Arctic melt in the following ways:

Still to be released is NASA data showing the remaining Arctic sea ice to be unusually thin—another record

(or) The Facts:

2008 shattered records for Arctic growth in the following ways:

- Never before has the arctic increased in ice as such quickness and magnitude, so that earth's total ice is at 1 million square kilometers greater than normal.

Friday, March 28, 2008

Al Gore next president?

a few weeks ago he had no chance, with odds posting around at $500 on betfair. But now some democrat's are thinking about giving him their vote because of the hillary - obama standoff. Gore's odds have come into $40, which means the market views him at around a 2.5% chance.

Still small of course, but reasonably probable

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Massive ice shelf collapses, but ice near record high

As reported by the Australian:

A CHUNK of Antarctic ice about seven times the size of Manhattan has suddenly collapsed, putting an even greater portion of glacial ice at risk.

British Antarctic Survey scientist David Vaughan said the collapse was the result of global warming.

While icebergs naturally break away from the mainland, collapses like this are unusual but are happening more frequently in recent decades, Mr Vaughan said.

Mr Vaughan had predicted the Wilkins shelf would collapse about 15 years from now.

Scientists said they are not concerned about a rise in sea level from the latest event, but say it's a sign of worsening global warming.

Such occurrences are “more indicative of a tipping point or trigger in the climate system,” said Sarah Das, a scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute in the US.

However, as reported here

The full Wilkins 6,000 square mile ice shelf is just 0.39% of the current ice sheet (just 0.1% of the extent last September). Only a small portion of it between 1/10th-1/20th of Wilkins has separated so far, like an icicle falling off a snow and ice covered house. And this winter is coming on quickly. In fact the ice is returning so fast, it is running an amazing 60% ahead (4.0 vs 2.5 million square km extent) of last year when it set a new record. The ice extent is already approaching the second highest level for extent since the measurements began by satellite in 1979 and just a few days into the Southern Hemisphere winter and 6 months ahead of the peak. Wilkins like all the others that temporarily broke up will refreeze soon. We are very likely going to exceed last year’s record. Yet the world is left with the false impression Antarctica’s ice sheet is also starting to disappear.

Indeed that is true, because of current the world ice levels has no reached 1 million square kilometers above normal.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Oz heat due to climate change, world freeze is not

Elissa Lawrence reports:

SOUTH Australians are being warned to brace for harsher and more regular heatwaves amid fears climate change may be occurring faster than forecast.

South Australian Bureau of Meteorology regional director Andrew Watson said he was confident the current record heatwave – which yesterday stretched into its 13th day – was a result of global warming, and it was evidence the rate of climate change could be gaining pace.

However, maybe climate change is only effecting Australia because world wide temperatures have plummeted.

Sunday, March 09, 2008

More Non Consensus

Only about one in three Alberta earth scientists and engineers believe the culprit behind climate change has been identified, a new poll reported today.

The expert jury is divided, with 26 per cent attributing global warming to human activity like burning fossil fuels and 27 per cent blaming other causes such as volcanoes, sunspots, earth crust movements and natural evolution of the planet.

A 99-per-cent majority believes the climate is changing. But 45 per cent blame both human and natural influences, and 68 per cent disagree with the popular statement that "the debate on the scientific causes of recent climate change is settled."

Global sea ice levels well above normal

Yep, so true.

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Monday, March 03, 2008

Australia's second coldest Feb since 1976

Australia recorded its second coldest Feb since 1976.

All Australian capitals, bar Perth, recorded lower than average temperatures, especially maximum temperatures.

If fact, just doing a bit of playing around on the ABOM website, we come across some interesting information.

Maximum temperatures in Feb have not significantly increased (t = 1.3, p = 0.2). However minimum temperatures in Feb have significantly increased and the graph shows this quite clearly ( = 4.1, p < 0.001).

Maximum temperatures in Jan have not significantly increase either (t = 1.8, p = 0.075), however minimum temperatures in Jan have increased hugely (t = 3.8, p < 0.001).

For December, maximum temperatures have not significantly increased, and make sure you check out the graph because its obvious there is no trend (t = 0.8, p = 0.4). However minimum temperatures in Dec have shown a constant increase in December and the increase is significant (t = 3.8, p < 0.001).

So all throughout summer in Australia, we are not heating up during the day. You can even check out the min and max increases in summer from the ABOM website.

Strange thing this global warming. Has no effect on summer time day temperatures.

Global Ice Levels Not Decreasing

Global Ice Levels are not decreasing and in fact are perfectly on normal according to the Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois.

This largely due to another sudden increase in ice levels in the northern hemisphere over the last couple of days.

So are world wide ice levels decreasing due to global warming? Answer is NO.