Thursday, May 31, 2007

How not to measure temperature

As shown as Watt's up with that,

I'm surveying climate stations of record around California and documenting their condition as part of a larger project I'm doing. You'll see more about it here in the near future.

Today I visited Marysville's Fire Station, just off Hwy 70 at 9th and B Street, where they have the station of record for the city using the MMTS electronic sensor installed by the National Weather Service. The data from this station is part of the USHCN (US Historical Climatological Network) and is used in the computer modeling used to predict climate change.

The Marysville station is located behind the fire department building on a patio and is probably the worst site visited so far. In addition to the sensor being surrounded by asphalt and concrete, its also within 10 feet of buildings, and within 8 feet of a large metal cell tower that could be felt reflecting sunlight/heat. And worst of all, air conditioning units on the cell tower electronics buildings vent warm air within 10 feet of the sensor. Oh and lets not forget the portable BBQ the firefighters use a "couple times a week." The area has been constantly added to, what was once a grass rear yard was turned to a parking lot, then more buildings added, then a cell tower with one, then two electronics buildings and the air report on how long the firefighters were BBQ'ing back there, when they figured out why I was asking all the questions they clammed up.

I can tell you with certainty, the temperature data from this station is useless. Look at the pictures to see why, and is it any wonder the trend for temperature is upward?




Above: Vehicles with hot radiators park within 6 feet of the temperature sensor!


Now compare Marysville to Orland, just 50 miles away, where there's not been any significant change in the last 100 years at the measuring location. Its obvious that Marysville is measuring UHI (Urban Heat Island) effects.


So the question is, how does bad data like this slip into the NASA GISS model database?

Weather Normal

As Tim Blair reports

Reports last month suggested Britain would melt during summer:

It could be time to say goodbye to defining features of British life, like rainy picnics and cloudy sunbathing …

Not quite yet:

A diligent BBC researcher has discovered that yesterday was the coldest on record for a Test match in England. Temperatures dropped to 7.4C (45F), but it felt colder.

Meanwhile, Australia’s allegedly endangered ski fields seem to be doing just fine:

Victoria’s Alpine region is experiencing the best lead-up to the ski season since 2004, with heavy falls overnight …

"This is great considering it’s two weeks away from opening weekend,” [Mount Buller Resort marketing manager Amber]

Gardner said.

Remember, our planet is just five years away from climate change catastrophe.

Greenpeace cold on warming debate

Greenpeace announces its new policy on debating man-made global warming:

We have a policy at Greenpeace that we no longer debate people who don’t accept the scientific reality of anthropogenic climate change.

Nothing strange in that. The Age has had this policy for years. ABC staff would like it, too.

Iain Murray explains what the eco-censors aren’t debating about.

Monday, May 28, 2007

Vermont bans idling by schoolbuses to slow global warming

As hot air reports:

Thereby reducing greenhouse gas omissions by .000000000000000000001% or some number thereabouts.

They believe the children are our future. They’ve taught them well, and now they’re letting them lead the way:

Gov. Jim Douglas used six pens Friday to sign his name to a bill that will ban school buses from running their engines while parked on school grounds, except under special circumstances.

Seated in the library at Browns River Middle School, Douglas rewarded a seventh-grade social studies class for its efforts on behalf of the bill by coming to the students to transform the legislation into law. He handed the pens he used to five students who led the lobbying effort and their teacher, Patty Brushett.

“This is a great step forward for our state,” Douglas said, listing benefits such as fuel conservation, improved air quality and reduction in greenhouse gases…

George Crombie, secretary of the Agency of Natural Resources, joined Douglas for the ceremony and presented the school with a sign to post by the driveway.

“These signs will go to every single school,” Crombie said. The red sign reads, “Please turn off your engines for our health.”

I guess they don't know how a diesel engine works.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

West Queensland

Not a lot of good data in West Queensland, however we will analyse temperatures at BOULIA AIRPORT and CAMOOWEAL TOWNSHIP.

Max/min/9am and 3pm temperatures go back to 1910, whilst all other times only go back 15 years.

Maximum temperatures showed a significant increase (p<0.01), as did minimum temperatures (p<0.01). Similarly temperatures at 3pm showed a significant increase in temperature (p<0.01), however temperatures at 9am showed a significant decrease in temperature (p=0.02).

On closer look, since the 1940's temperatures at 9am have been increasing, so a similar pattern does exist.

Minimum temperature anomalies were found to be around 0.5 to 1 degree warmer than temperature anomalies at 3am and 6am, and as normal, we found that 9am temperature anomalies were significantly higher than 6am, and 6pm temperature anomalies were significantly lower than temperature anomalies at 3pm, which indicates that we are warming up during the heat of the day more so than in yesteryear, but not having any increase in heat during the day.

Hmm...what could cause us to heat up more so in the middle of the day of late?

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Climate Change Myths

Professor Bob Carter has published The Myth of Dangerous Human-Caused Climate Change.

interesting read. Not everything i agree with him on, however i note that he does mention:

"the temperature at each site is constructed using the statistically
doubtful historic method of averaging the maximum and
minimum temperatures measured once each day at the site."

statistically doubtful? statistically very doubtful.

Central Queensland

Central Queensland includes data form Richmond, Barcaldine and Longreach airports. Maximum and minimum temperatures as well as temperatures at 9am and 3pm reach back to 1910. Most other times have limited data going back to the mid 1970s with midnight and 9pm only having 15 years of data. Hence analysis into this area is a little limited but still worthwhile taking.

Maximum temperatures showed no significant increase (t =1.5, p = 0.12) despite the fact that the last 6 years and 14 of the last 16 years have had higher than the norm. Minimum temperatures increased highly significantly (t = 6.07, p<0.01) with 10 of the last 23 years having a minimum temperature at more than 1 degree greater than the norm.

With limited time based data, it was hard to find any significant increases or decreases in temperature, however, looking at temperatures at 9am we saw higher than normal temperatures pre 1940, and then a sudden decrease followed by an increasing temperature trend until today. Temperatures at 3pm saw no significant difference despite the last 6 years showing above average temperatures.

With limited time based temperatures, most changes in temperature anomalies between neighbouring times were found non significant leading up to the heat of the day. However, temperatures anomalies at 6pm were found to be significant lower than at 3pm (p < 0.05).

The minimum temperature anomaly was found to be around 0.5 to 1.0 degrees above the temperature anomalies at 3am and 6am, thus once again highlighting the suns effect on global warming in the aptly named sunshine state.

Scientific Consensus?

I received a pamphlet in the mail from the labour party that started by saying that

"the debate is now over. we've reached scientific consensus, it's time to act"

of course this is far from true, but maybe it's also becoming less and less true?

Sunday, May 20, 2007

The sunshine state: North Queensland

Now, onto Queensland, often called the sunshine state, so it will be interesting to see what effect the sun has on this state’s temperatures. To start off with we will go to the far north. Data comes from several stations including Cooktown and Cairns airport. The data also is pretty good, with maximum and minimum temperatures spanning back to 1910, and all time based weather readings back to 1943, with the exception of midnight (which seems to be a regular case) only back to 1993.

Maximum temperatures saw a significant raise (t = 4, p<0.01) largely to a significant lower than normal maximum temperatures between 1910 and 1920. Minimum temperatures also saw a significant increase (t = 6, p <0.01).

However surprisingly, 9am was the only time based temperature that saw a significant increase in temperature (t = 3.8, p < 0.01). Temperatures at 3pm saw no increase in temperature (t = -0.5, p = 0.6). This ties in with the fact that the only reasons why we saw a maximum temperature increase was because of very early low maximum temperatures which are not accounted for in the time based temperatures.

However the usual pattern was found when looking at the rate of change of temperatures between adjoining times. 9am recorded a significantly higher temperature anomaly than 6am (p<0.01) and 6pm showed a significant lower temperature anomaly than at 3pm (p<0.05), despite the last few years being positive. Hence indicating that all recent warming in north Queensland is due to the suns output.

Temperature analysis between 3am,6am and the minimum temperature, saw the minimum temperature increasing significantly at a rate of up to 1.7 degrees per 100 years in comparison to overnight temperatures. This once again indicates that temperatures at night are not warming up in northern Queensland and that the minimum is only increasing due to the influence of the sun.

Friday, May 11, 2007

South East Australian drought over

well it looks as though the drought that has inflicted south eastern Australia is now over. Well at least according to the stats. It naturally doesn't stop politicians claiming global warming as the reason behind this. But lets look at the stats shall we?

Given below is the expected and actual rainfall in south eastern Australia

Expected Actual
Jan 45.0 41.6
Feb 40.8 41.4
Mar 38.3 37.3
Apr 39.9 52.0
Total 164.0 172.4

So we have a 5.1% increase in rainfall than the norm.

Also in Victoria:

Expected Actual
Jan 37.0 55.7
Feb 36.6 31.1
Mar 40.2 38.5
Apr 46.5 42.4
Total 160.3 167.7

A 4.6% increase in rainfall since the start of the year.

So can we please stop all this worst drought in 1000 or 100 years crap? Currently, as proven from the above statistics given from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, there is no drought.

Thursday, May 10, 2007

More Evidence of the sun’s influence over global warming

With all the amazing statistics that have provided strong evidence that temperatures in south east South Australia are highly influenced by the sun, the question still lies if this is a one off for the area or if similar patterns are found elsewhere in Australia.

This article will look at all the areas of Australia that we have already looked at with regards to temperature rate of change as we approach the maximum and after the maximum, as well as temperature differences between 3am,6am and the minimum temperature.

Firstly, Giles – found in outback central western Australia. We find that temperatures at 9am are significantly higher than at 6am, and that minimum temperatures are significantly higher than temperatures at 3am and 6am. Such findings agree with those found in south east South Australia.

Alice springs shows a significant increase in temperature anomalies at 9am as compared to 6am, and a significant decrease at 6pm as compared to 3pm. The decrease in the last graph is startling and obvious. And once again minimum temperature anomalies were significantly higher than at 3am and 6am, with the increase being up to 1.2 degrees per 100 years.

Tennant creek recorded significant increases in temperature at 9am as compared to 6am, and significant decreases at 6pm as compared to 3pm. We also found significant increases in minimum temperature anomalies to that of 3am and 6am temperatures at the rate of 1.0 degrees per 100 years.

The fourth place in a row, the Kimberley, as seen significant increases in temperature at 9am as compared to 6am, and also once again found significant decreases in temperature at 6pm as compared to 3pm. Also once again, significant increases in minimum temperature at the rate of around 1.0 degree per 100 years was found in comparison to 6am and 3am anomalies.

The Pilbara failed to record a significant increase in temperature at 9am as compared to 6am (p=0.09), however it must be noted the last 11 years have recorded greater temperatures at 9am. Temperatures at 6pm were significantly lower than at 3pm. Minimum temperatures showed again, an increase in difference between itself and temperatures at 3am and 6am.

For south of Perth, significant changes in the morning as well as the afternoon as well as changes in minimum temperature compared to 3am and 6am.

These patterns are getting predictable, a little boring, but drastic evidence for the case of the sun being the major cause of global warming. If Co2 was the major cause of global warming then we would not see significant increase in the rate of change of temperature as we approach the maximum and we wouldn’t see decreases in the rate of change of temperature as we move away from this. Minimum temperature anomalies should be very comparable to temperature anomalies at 3am and 6am, but the increasing pattern only suggests that the Australia is warming up shortly after the sun has risen, and this temperature increase has increased over time, especially of late.

South Africian Electricity

In south Africa for the next 10 days, and on reading the local newspaper I was surprised to read that a member of parliament is pushing the government to act on climate change. He suggested that every person can pay a part in reducing their energy and electricity, but admitted that reliance on renewable energy will cost more than three times as much as conventional methods.

Personally, charging south Africans three times the price for electricity will just create a greater divide between the rich and the poor. I would have thought that making sure that electricity is actually available for all Africans would be more important than reducing it and making it less accessible for all south Africans.

Friday, May 04, 2007

South Africian biz

I'm actually going to be in south africa for the next couple of weeks on biz and holiday, so it will be kinda hard to update new information for a short period of time.

This being a bad time, when things are going so smoothly. Anyhow, I'll be back in a couple of weeks with updates, and will probably throw in some more research results every couple of days in the meantime

Statistical Proof of sun caused global warming in South Australia Part II

Abstract: Minimum temperatures have been increasing more so than temperatures at 3am and 6am over the last 50 years in south east Southern Australia. Evidence suggests that this is because of increases in the suns output rather than co2 levels. The pattern stronger than in summer than in winter, and we suggest that minimum temperatures is a poor measure of overnight temperatures as it is correlated more with day time and maximum temperatures than overnight temperatures.

We discussed yesterday how for south eastern South Australia, the rate of change in temperature at neighbouring times increased as we reached the maximum temperature of the day and decreased as the sun lost its warming power. If Co2 levels were the main cause of global warming, then this pattern would not occur and the rate of change amongst all times would be relatively constant. This of course did not happen. However, this is a clear indication that the sun is the main driving force behind recent global warming.

But this still doesn't answer why minimum temperatures have been increasing. We hypothesised that it also had to do with the sun and a warmer sun would influence the early morning temperatures. As an example, today at mount gambier (south eastern south Australia), first light was recorded at 6.22am and the sunrise at 6.50am. Hence we had a whole 30 minutes of the atmosphere heating up due to the sun before mount gambians actually saw it. The minimum temperature on this day, the 4th of May occurred at 7am with the temperature of 11.1 degrees. What this means is that it occurred shortly after the sun rose. As soon as the sun was high enough in the sky to make a significant difference, the temperatures increased.

If the sun was stronger than normal, then we would have still acquired similar temperatures at 6am as in the past, but the minimum temperature would be increased. The extra power of the sun would increase the atmosphere from first light. We had 30 minutes from first light to the rise of the sun and an extra 10 minutes until we reached out minimum.

Our hypothesis is therefore we should see an increasing trend when we minus the temperatures at 3 and 6am from the minimum temperature. In other words, over time, the minimum temperature should be increasing at a greater rate than at 3am and 6am. If the sun is effecting temperatures at the minimum and maximum, then we would also expect to see no significant trend of time with the difference between minimum and maximum temperature anomalies. I also hypothesise that we might find differences in summer and winter where mount gambier obviously has greater amount of sunlight in the summer than the winter. What differences these are we'll have to see.

So lets to the analysis:

Shown above the the output from minimum minus the 3am and 6am temperature anomalies over time. What is quite clear is the increasing trend, in that minimum temperatures are increasing at a greater rate than the temperature at 3am and 6am. It is obvious that minimum temperatures is not a good indication of overnight temperatures. The trend is so strong that it shows that minimum temperatures have been increasing by as much as 0.8 degrees per 100 years in comparison with 3am temperatures, and by 1.4 degrees per 100 years when compared to 6am temperatures. This 1.4 degree increase is actually very comparable to the 1.6 degree increase per 100 years that we saw minimum temperatures increasing by.

More evidence that minimum temperatures are increasing at a significantly greater rate over the last 50 years than temperatures at 3am and 6am. If co2 was the driving force behind temperature change, then this pattern would not occur, and it occurs so strikingly, that it cannot be ignored.

The difference between maximum and minimum temperatures anomalies in south east South Australia showed a slight increase, in that maximum temperatures were increasing at a greater rate than minimum temperatures, however the increase was not statistically significant.

Also the difference between 3am and minimum temperatures in summer was 27% greater than in winter. Even more than this was the difference between 6am and minimum temperatures anomalies in summer than in winter, which was 67% stronger.
This no doubt is because of the sun and perhaps less cloud cover in the summer.

In conclusion, we can say that our hypothesis have been answered. We have proven that over time, minimum temperatures have increased at a significant rate more than overnight temperatures. This indicates that minimum temperature is a poor indication of overnight temperatures, that is largely correlated with maximum temperature. It is therefore most likely the sun that is driving up minimum temperatures and not effecting the temperature before first light.

Hence we have more evidence that co2 could not possibly be the driving force behind global warming and that the sun is the main cause.

Well, maybe I should say south east South Australia warming instead of global warming. So are these patterns duplicated in other and in total within Australia?
the next posts will take a closer look at this.

Thursday, May 03, 2007

Statistical Proof of sun caused global warming in South Australia Part I

Abstract: Statistical analysis of the rate of temperature change between times of proximity has shown that the rate of increase of temperature as a measure of time has significantly increased up until 3pm and then decreased until 9am in South Australia over the last 50 years. If Co2 levels were the major cause of global warming, then no rate of change in temperature between near times should exist, eg they should all increase at the same rate. Our analysis proves that this is not the case, and that temperature is increasing at a greater rate when the sun is at it’s peak in the middle of the day. Hence our conclusion is that the major force behind global warming is not Co2 levels, but the sun.


When looking at the graphs at 3am,6am and the minimum for south east southern Australia, something puzzled me. Whenever 3am or 6am had a negative anomaly (eg a lower than expected temperature for that year), the minimum temperature for that year was average. Whenever 3am or 6am had an average temperature for the year, the minimum temperature was significantly higher than normal.

This pattern was even more extreme in more recent years. It was because of this that I decided to look into the rate of change of temperature anomalies between neighboring times. We actually said a few things about this in the last post on the area:

We even found that temperature anomalies at 3pm were significantly higher than at Noon (p<0.01) and that temperature anomalies at 9pm were significantly lower than at 6pm (p<0.01). This indicates, that the temperature around south east southern Australia is heating up during the day, but more importantly is heating up at a greater rate when the sun is at its hottest. Does this not clearly indicate an increase in solar heating?

But actually looking at graphs of this made the pattern that more obvious than simple significant figures. But first lets hypothesise what would happen to the rate of change, if we believe that the sun has been the major cause of most recent warming.

We have said shown in a very early post on this blog, that in the last 5 years of more recent warming, almost all of this has occurred during the day when the sun it up. The pattern is clearly identifiable in the graph below. The rate of change of temperature anomalies have increased rapidly up to 3pm and then decreased. Even at midnight, the temperature is still a little hotter than normal, largely to due the extra hot sun heating up the atmosphere. By 3am and 6am, the atmosphere it would seem is not influenced by the sun.

Similarly from 1947 to 1976 when we saw a slight decrease in overall global (and Australian) temperature, most of the decrease occurred during the heat of the day around 3pm. This indicates again, then when the overall temperature is cold, it is because it is a lot colder during the heat of the day and not equally hot overall.

If Co2 were the major cause of global, and Australian warming, then we would expect an equal increase in temperature at all times of the day and night. Maximum and minimum temperatures agree with this, however, the analysis shown here strongly disagree. In fact it disagrees so much, that it is clearly obvious that Co2 could not be the major cause. What else heats the world up with increasing rates up to around 3pm and then decreasing? The sun of course.

So our hypothesis on rate of temperature anomaly change between neighbouring times in south eastern south Australia, given that the sun is the major cause would be very similar. We should find little difference in the overnight temperatures of 3am and 6am, but should find significant increases in the rate of change of temperature anomaly’s leading up to 3pm and then significant decreases in the rate of change of temperature anomaly's. This of course is looked at over time (in this case years). The rate of change should actually grow stronger as the years go on (as we have seen stronger increases in maximum and minimum temperatures).

So does the data suggest this? Let’s find out.

Whilst temperature data at midnight is limited, we do find that the rate of change of temperatures at 3am is on average 0.1 degrees Celsius less than that at midnight. In other words, the temperature at 3am is cooling down a rate of 0.1 degrees quicker than it is at midnight. Perhaps this is because the influence of the sun is now very limited? If Co2 was the major cause of warming, we should not see any pattern at all in this graph of limited years.

As a surprise, the rate of change of temperature anomalies at 6am have decreased significantly from 3am. In fact this rate of decrease has been at 0.5 degrees per 100 years. Why is 6am getting a lot colder with relation to 3am?

When looking at changes between 9am and 6am, we find no major change with the exception of the latest 10 years all being warmer. So the last 10 years, we have seen temperatures at 9am increase significantly more than at 6am. This isn’t surprising as this is when the sun increases, although I have to admit I would have thought the increase would have been more substantial (if the sun was the major cause of global warming).

But now the pattern, as predicted, is starting to hit in. Temperatures at Noon were significantly increasing as compared to 9am at a rate of 0.4 degrees per 100 years and the significant increase in temperatures at 3pm as compared to Noon was even greater (1.2 degrees per 100 years).

No major changes were found in the relationship between 6pm and 3pm, although it must be noted that a large negative trend was found in the last 6-7 years (eg. 6pm has been cooling quicker than at 3pm). And when the sun is starting to lose it’s influence of the temperature (between 9pm and 6pm) in south east southern Australia, we see that the rate of change more recently has been negative at a rate of 0.5 degrees per 100 years. This pattern, though a small sample size, is still obvious when looking at changes in temperature anomalies over time between Midnight and 9pm.

So believe it or not, we have proven exactly what our hypothesis predicted. That the rate of change in neighboring times would increase more significantly over time when the sun is getting hotter (around 3pm) and then decrease with time later in the day. I strongly recommend you view the linked graphs above to see it for yourself.

This is a clear indication, that the major driving force behind temperature change is the sun. Should Co2 levels been the main force, then would have seen no patterns at all in these graphs, but the patterns are clearly obvious and only point to one possible conclusion.

Of course you are asking, this is only a small sample of Australian weather stations yet alone the world, and yes we will get to them. I can’t let all the eggs out the basket at once!

But this analysis still doesn’t look at why minimum temperatures have increased despite early morning temperatures having not done so. We have hypothesized in the past how the sun is influencing minimum temperatures as well, but can we prove that statistically?

You’re just going to have to wait till the next article for Part II on Statistical Proof of sun caused global warming in South Australia.

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Maximums and Minimums

The world is heating up. One thing is for sure, is that there is scientific consensus on this issue! Analysis of maximum and minimum temperature have proven it. Both have gone up significantly world wide, and also too in Australia.

The maximum is used as a measure of how hot we are getting during the day, whilst the minimum is a measure of how cold we get during the night. But are they good variables to use as a measure of average temperature?

Maximum and minimum temperatures occur at different times of the day, often by large amounts when in different seasons. Surely a better measure would be to keep the time constant and see if the temperature has increased at that (and other) specific times?

But unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of good data lying around for this type of analysis. A large exception to this is Australian data. Whilst there is not as many time based data as maximum and minimum data, I feel that statistical analysis on the raw data is by far more advantageous than doing statistical analysis on a statistic (which is derived from the raw data).

So why has there been no scientific analysis on time based temperatures? For me it seems very strange that we can spend billions of dollars on global warming, yet still have not done the proper statistical analysis on temperatures?

The answer is simple. There is no reason to do further analysis on temperatures. We have already proven and clearly show that maximum and minimum temperatures are increasing - quite dramatically in fact. As we said earlier, there is scientific consensus on this. The world is heating up and this is beyond doubt.

So why do more analysis on something that is crystal clear and proven beyond recognition? So, naturally, noone has.

Hence we are stuck in a scientific world where we are spending billions of dollars on what will happen when the world heats up, and what we can do about it, yet have not done a full statistical investigation about how the world is heating up.

We know why the world is heating up (Co2 emissions, right?). We know who (humans of course). We know where (the entire world, especially where there is ice). We know what (our pagan earth). We even know when (now, and the devastating effects it will have on our children's children).

But we do not know how. We only know that maximum and minimum temperatures are increasing.

But as most scientists will argue, this is plenty of evidence to prove that we are warming up during the day and at night. In fact, evidence suggests that minimum's are increasing at an even greater rate than maximum temperatures (which lead some scientists to believe in the urban heat island effect etc.).

Whilst most will say that the maximum temperature is a reasonable statistic to relate to average temperature during the day (time based temperatures is obviously better), how good does the minimum temperature relate to the average temperature at night?

Maximum temperatures occur generally when the sun is at it's hottest. Well at least when we feel it the most. Generally this is around 3pm, but changes dramatically in the different seasons and weather conditions. 3pm is almost the middle of the day. It's a little later than the middle, and maximums occur a little later than the middle due to the atmosphere warming up (by the sun). Still, we as civilians, are always interested in the maximum predicted temperature by the weather forecasters as a reference to how hot tomorrow will be.

But when looking at minimum temperatures, the issue is different. As a general rule, as soon as the sun sets we start losing heat in the atmosphere and the temperature will slowly subside. It will keep going down and down until, you guessed it, the sun warms up the atmosphere and then rises.

So the minimum temperature will occur right at the end of night time - the period shortly before light. Is the minimum temperature therefore a good representation of night temperatures? Would you think that taking the temperature at sunset would be a good representation of how hot the day is?

The answer is quite clearly no. Whilst we can suggest that maximum temperatures is a reasonable (although not fantastic) statistic when it comes to it's relation with average daytime temperatures, the minimum temperature is a terrible representation of how cold a certain night is.

This being for a couple of reasons. One; in that it is not generally the minimum temperature around the middle of the night, and two; in that it is actually influenced by the sun.

The what? the sun? How on earth can the minimum temperature be influenced by the sun?

Well it does. A warmer sun would heat up the atmosphere at a greater rate, just at the time where we would normally achieve a minimum temperature. Warmer days (thanks to a hot sun!) would result in hotter nights. Maximum and minimum temperatures are related and both are quite dependent on the strength of the sun.

So what has any of this got to do with global warming? Well, tomorrow, we will show you exactly why minimum temperatures are a poor statistic in measuring overnight temperatures and will prove the suns influence and changing behaviour over time.

In short, we will prove to you that global warming - the increase in maximum and minimum temperatures - is primarily due to increases in solar radiation.

And you don't want to miss that!

Just take our word for it

Free Carbon Offsets!

Free here!

Tuesday, May 01, 2007

South East South Australia

The south eastern section of south Australia comprises of a couple of weather stations that have reliable data. These being at Cape Northumberland and Mount Gambier airport.

Maximum and minimum data go back to the end of the second world war, whilst time based data, with the exception of midnight (which only starts in 1994), goes back to the mid 1950s.

Analysis of maximum temperatures show a significant increase in temperature since 1943 (t=7.4, p<0.01). The graph linked above is quite dramatic. Similarly, a significant increase was found for minimum temperatures as well (t=6.6,p<0.01).

In both cases the increase was clearly evident. For the minimum case, we saw a large number of negative anomalies between 1943 and 1958 and since about 1980 it shows only greater than normal minimum temperatures.

Given the dramatic increase, one would expect to see increases in temperature at almost all times. However this is not the case.

There was no significant increases in temperature at 3am (t=1.5,p=0.12), 6am (t=0.02, p=0.98), 9am (t=-0.2, p=0.85) and at Noon (t=0.8,p=0.4). Just looking at the above mentioned graphs one can clearly not see any trend pattern.

However we did find significant increases in temperature at 3pm (t=4.5,p<0.01), 6pm (t=3.8,p<0.01) and 9pm (t=2.5,p<0.05). Incidentally, rainfall showed no significant change (t=-0.6,p=0.56).

So how can the minimum temperature increase so dramatically, yet temperatures from 3am through to Noon show no significant increase? These are times when the minimum would occur. The minimum generally occurs at the end of the night, shortly before the sun makes its appearance and warms us up.

It makes perfect sense that if maximum temperatures are increasing, so does the temperature at and around 3pm, which is what we found. We even found that temperature anomalies at 3pm were significantly higher than at Noon (p<0.01) and that temperature anomalies at 9pm were significantly lower than at 6pm (p<0.01). This indicates, that the temperature around south east southern Australia is heating up during the day, but more importantly is heating up at a greater rate when the sun is at it's hottest. Does this not clearly indicate an increase in solar heating?

But the results found on minimum temperatures are quite bizzare. The strength of the increase in minimum temperatures is very strong and very significant. Even if we only analyse minimum temperatures from 1955 (the same time as the beginning of time based temperature), we still find a highly significant increase (t=4.2,p<0.01).

So how is it that minimum temperatures can dramatically increase yet we see no signs of increased warming including and in between 3am and Noon? The answer will lie in the next few "weatheranalysis" posts.

Climate change hits Mars

Mars is being hit by rapid climate change and it is happening so fast that the red planet could lose its southern ice cap reports TimesOnline

Scientists from Nasa say that Mars has warmed by about 0.5C since the 1970s. This is similar to the warming experienced on Earth over approximately the same period.

Since there is no known life on Mars it suggests rapid changes in planetary climates could be natural phenomena.

The mechanism at work on Mars appears, however, to be different from that on Earth. One of the researchers, Lori Fenton, believes variations in radiation and temperature across the surface of the Red Planet are generating strong winds.

In a paper published in the journal Nature, she suggests that such winds can stir up giant dust storms, trapping heat and raising the planet’s temperature.

Fenton’s team unearthed heat maps of the Martian surface from Nasa’s Viking mission in the 1970s and compared them with maps gathered more than two decades later by Mars Global Surveyor. They found there had been widespread changes, with some areas becoming darker.

When a surface darkens it absorbs more heat, eventually radiating that heat back to warm the thin Martian atmosphere: lighter surfaces have the opposite effect. The temperature differences between the two are thought to be stirring up more winds, and dust, creating a cycle that is warming the planet.