tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post2153364308848937914..comments2024-01-26T23:04:49.482+11:00Comments on Gust Of Hot Air: Australia's climate is changing: it always hasJonathan Lowehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13972477779077598483noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-30067954777754413642007-02-13T22:00:00.000+11:002007-02-13T22:00:00.000+11:00Cheers Jonathan,I glad I made sense to you with wh...Cheers Jonathan,<BR/>I glad I made sense to you with what I was trying to get at.<BR/><BR/>DazzaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-63512156115471346402007-02-13T08:33:00.000+11:002007-02-13T08:33:00.000+11:00ahh climate modeling....hmm...need I reply? and th...ahh climate modeling....hmm...need I reply? and the 90?Jonathan Lowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13972477779077598483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-60558882054625550702007-02-13T03:33:00.000+11:002007-02-13T03:33:00.000+11:00"One could prove what percentage of temperature in..."One could prove what percentage of temperature increase related to CO2 levels, but causation is a problem."<BR/><BR/>Causation is no problem at all. It is just a matter of basic physics, <A HREF="http://physicsweb.org/articles/world/20/2/3/1" REL="nofollow">see here</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-41552689797516173862007-02-12T23:06:00.000+11:002007-02-12T23:06:00.000+11:00hi dazza, I would imagine that there is no statist...hi dazza, I would imagine that there is no statistical analysis that is made to come to the defining probability of "90% probability of climate change being man made". One could prove what percentage of temperature increase related to CO2 levels, but causation is a problem. I think it is basically made up based on the evidence at hand. <BR/><BR/>And if so, the null hypothesis has to be accepted as one normally needs less than 5% probability to prove the case. Hence if this 90% probability is true, we have to conclude that there is not enough evidence to prove that global warming is mad made.Jonathan Lowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13972477779077598483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-74186027195881880742007-02-12T22:28:00.000+11:002007-02-12T22:28:00.000+11:00Hi Jonathan,I keep hearing about the so called 90%...Hi Jonathan,<BR/><BR/>I keep hearing about the so called 90% probability of climate change being man made as stated in the IPCC report summary. Can you explain in a statistical manner what is the true meaning of this and how they would come to this conclusion? <BR/><BR/>Hope this makes sense.<BR/><BR/>CheersAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-21909315564712561712007-02-12T20:34:00.000+11:002007-02-12T20:34:00.000+11:00G'day Jonathan,Mate it's good to find your blog. I...G'day Jonathan,<BR/>Mate it's good to find your blog. I'm doing a series of articles on my blog agmates about "Climate Change" In tonights article I'll put a link to your post today.<BR/>It is scary how the spin doctors of climate change have got it into the Australian psychie that we humans beyond a shadow of doubt are causing climate change. <BR/>We need to keep blogging "the facts" to try and turn this sham around. My Blog address is http://www.agmates.blogspot.com/<BR/>I'll link to your site could you please link to mine and we'll keep working on giving readers the facts to dispell the likes of climate change spin doctors like Tim Flannery.<BR/>Cheers - SteveAgmateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08883619325204715127noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-53876986979026456372007-02-12T14:18:00.000+11:002007-02-12T14:18:00.000+11:00Good ol' Flannery. He loves that line about 250 mm...Good ol' Flannery. He loves that line about 250 mm less rain in some parts of SE Australia. I had this letter published in The Age on the 31st of January in response to it:<BR/><BR/>Doctor, heal thyself<BR/><BR/>TIM Flannery writes that we must underpin our decisions regarding our future with good science. It would be helpful if he would do the same. <BR/>Flannery claims that parts of south-east Australia are receiving 250 millimetres less rain than 50 years ago, but analysis of the Bureau of Meteorology's records shows that the long-term trends for rainfall have changed only marginally and are much the same as they were for the early part of the 20th century.<BR/>Flannery also cautions that "some models show that global warming would cause northern Australia to become even drier and sunnier than it was in 1950", if Asia reduces its aerosol output. This implies that other models don't show this. Flannery would better serve the science by telling us what proportion of models predict drying and whether it is statistically significant.<BR/>Alan Woods, Kingsville<BR/><BR/>Enjoying your blog, Jonathan. Keep up the good work!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com