tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post1253416921467483558..comments2024-01-26T23:04:49.482+11:00Comments on Gust Of Hot Air: Analysis of Australian Temperature - Part 4 - Summer/Winter EffectJonathan Lowehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13972477779077598483noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-69157250238073296362010-08-12T18:21:54.440+10:002010-08-12T18:21:54.440+10:00"If CO2 were the major cause of global warmin..."If CO2 were the major cause of global warming, then we should see a constant trend"<br /><br />Why do you propose that? As I understand it, CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and its effect is to amplify other forcings, but why would we expect it to remain constant when you turn a forcing off at night (the sun for instance)<br /><br />Has this hypothesis (that an increase in CO2 will create a constant trend) been tested?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-23193652092283015202009-12-09T17:14:01.345+11:002009-12-09T17:14:01.345+11:00Could this be a UHI effect ?
A low angled sun in w...Could this be a UHI effect ?<br />A low angled sun in winter, would be more influenced by UHI than a summer sun.Dr T Burnsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-35492079347638012082009-08-21T15:56:23.480+10:002009-08-21T15:56:23.480+10:00Hi Jonathan,
have you seen the recent activity on...Hi Jonathan,<br /><br />have you seen the recent activity on the Pielkes' blogs? This quote in particular struck me:<br /><br /><i><br />“[F]rom our papers (Pielke and Matsui 2005 and Lin et al. 2007), a conservative estimate of the warm bias resulting from measuring the temperature near the ground is around 0.21 C per decade (with the nightime T(min) contributing a large part of this bias) . Since land covers about 29% of the Earth’s surface (see), the warm bias due to this influence explains about 30% of the IPCC estimate of global warming. In other words, consideration of the bias in temperature would reduce the IPCC trend to about 0.14 degrees C per decade, still a warming, but not as large as indicated by the IPCC”<br /></i>Rafehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10169325688704651715noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-49182702803400903812009-07-24T17:26:16.312+10:002009-07-24T17:26:16.312+10:00Hi Jonathan; great series; the idea that AGW has a...Hi Jonathan; great series; the idea that AGW has a variable effect on climate indices and in different regions is a staple of the AGW debate and allows for AGW to fail regionally, daily, globally and annually as Koutsoyiannis showed. The time of day measurement is a vexed one and your analysis goes along way to dealing with that issue. You may be interested in this recent study which purports to predict regional and seasonal differences in climate under the auspices of AGW;<br /><br />http://www.hccrems.com.au/climate_change/index.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-18589751247980526972009-07-19T12:02:13.023+10:002009-07-19T12:02:13.023+10:00Jonathan, you should check out the new thread at W...Jonathan, you should check out the new thread at WUWT on the Christy paper. Right up your street.<br /><br />BTW, my comments are under Philip_BPhilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12142769659043349472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-10492885706809065142009-07-17T10:19:24.578+10:002009-07-17T10:19:24.578+10:00yes burning in the backyard was big. no-one can do...yes burning in the backyard was big. no-one can do it now in Australia. its been gradually pulled out from about 1980 to 1990 and now no longer exists.Jonathan Lowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13972477779077598483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-24213049342941969622009-07-17T08:20:28.626+10:002009-07-17T08:20:28.626+10:00looking more at the seasonal Tmin trends. There ar...looking more at the seasonal Tmin trends. There are large trends in spring and summer. <br /><br />I'd suggest the cause is decreases in agricultural burning and/or perhaps bushfires.<br /><br />I have no idea how common agricultural burning was in Australia (and google wasn't any help). I know it used to be very common in the UK and has now been stopped completely.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12142769659043349472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-63902161642969639862009-07-17T06:56:59.559+10:002009-07-17T06:56:59.559+10:00looking again at the BoM's data, the winter mi...looking again at the BoM's data, the winter minimum anomaly trend is much larger in southern Australia than northern Oz. Which is what I would expect.<br /><br />interestingly the largest trend is here in SW Australia, which may reflect a later switch to gas heating. Wood stoves were common here as recently as 20 years ago.<br /><br />There is currently a thread at WUWT on aerosol effects on climate. There may well be an aerosol effect on climate, but I'd say the morning smoke effect is larger.<br /><br />Once again you really need to publish. The whole CO2/GHG theory is built on the argument ' we can't explain the warming any other way.'<br /><br />Showing that most of the warming is an artifact of using Tmin to determine average temperature is a bombshell.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12142769659043349472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-75175480550156649302009-07-12T20:00:17.613+10:002009-07-12T20:00:17.613+10:00Jonathan,
It's a general misconception that d...Jonathan,<br /><br />It's a general misconception that deserts are hot. Most of the time they are cold, relative to higher humidity areas. <br /><br />Without knowing the distribution of BOM's northern stations, It's hard to say whether morning fires have a similar effect in the North.<br /><br />If you want to make a comparison look at humid tropical stations where winter fires would be unlikely.<br /><br />Gotta go. The Test match is about to start. Hope you put some money on Australia. I think they will bowl out England by tea.<br /><br />Philip_BPhilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12142769659043349472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-84012390784246318132009-07-06T10:44:06.424+10:002009-07-06T10:44:06.424+10:00Going through this list of what John Daly describe...Going through <a href="http://www.john-daly.com/stations/stations.htm" rel="nofollow">this list</a> of what John Daly describes as non urban weather stations in Australia, probably the most non urban stations apart from giles are<br /><br /><a href="http://www.john-daly.com/stations/c-otway.gif" rel="nofollow">Cape Otway</a><br /><a href="http://www.john-daly.com/stations/gabo-i.gif" rel="nofollow">Gabo Island</a><br />and <a href="http://www.john-daly.com/stations/wilsons.gif" rel="nofollow">Wilsons Prom to a smaller extent</a><br /><br />We should also see, if your theory is correct, a smaller increase in temperature closer to the tropics than the south. This is something however that we do not see in Australia according to the BOM's data as <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=tmean&area=naus&season=0112&ave_yr=11" rel="nofollow">shown here</a><br /><br />Pollution might be an issue, but it might be a lot more in depth than just smoke pollution.Jonathan Lowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13972477779077598483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-15755239997255443592009-07-06T10:04:59.799+10:002009-07-06T10:04:59.799+10:00Hi Phillip,
that is a very interesting observation...Hi Phillip,<br />that is a very interesting observation. It might well be the case. If it were, we would expect weather observations from places that are not located near houses or any other commercial or industrial buildings (eg Giles), to be pretty flat across the years.<br /><br />This is exactly what we find <a href="http://gustofhotair.blogspot.com/2007/01/no-temperature-increase-in-central.html" rel="nofollow"> as shown here </a> where there was no increasing or decreasing maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as time based temperatures over the years.<br /><br />One of the issues with this theory is that there are few and far between weather observation stations that are subject to not being around any nearby structures that might be influenced by smoke or pollution. If anyone knows of any others in Australia, please let me know, but I will look more into this.<br /><br />Great post Phillip, awesomeJonathan Lowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13972477779077598483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-17950651821825261712009-07-04T13:44:51.737+10:002009-07-04T13:44:51.737+10:00Welcome back Jonathan.
What does this mean? It me...Welcome back Jonathan.<br /><br /><i>What does this mean? It means basically that at 9am winter temperatures are increasing quite drastically when compared to summer. This trend is not small either, it is at a rate of 3.1 degrees per 100 years, more than 3 times the world average.</i><br /><br />The reason is there to see any any Australian house more than 50 or so years old - An open fire place.<br /><br />I grew up in the UK, but I doubt it was much different in any southern Australian city in winter, the morning ritual of lighting the fire - very smoky exercise with coal or wood that was not fully dry.<br /><br />Then in the 60s and 70s came clean air acts that reduced the smokiness of the fuel, and along with increasing gas and electric heating, a dramatic reduction in particulate pollution occured, especially in the early morning in winter.<br /><br />Less particulate pollution = more sunshine = warmer mornings in winter.<br /><br />This not only explains your data, it explains the entire 'global warming' phenomena. As almost all the surface warming (GISS, HADCRU) is in Tmin, and Tmin occurs in the early morning precisely when the morning smokiness was at its maximum. And as smokiness declined more sunshine resulted in higher Tmins.<br /><br />Philip_BAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-41769263151213360752009-07-01T11:28:05.544+10:002009-07-01T11:28:05.544+10:00want to comment on the analysis chris, or perhaps ...want to comment on the analysis chris, or perhaps just involve yourself in a bit of character assignation instead?Jonathan Lowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13972477779077598483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36333052.post-857476088716504962009-06-30T23:28:21.504+10:002009-06-30T23:28:21.504+10:00"If CO2 were the major cause of global warmin..."If CO2 were the major cause of global warming, then we should see....... We see none of this, but rather the opposite."<br /><br />Ha ha... another DENIER! ;-)<br /><br />Heh, maybe there is just sooooo much CO2 and cow fart gas now the whole climate thing has flicked into reverse or something. Uncle Tim or Uncle Al will explain it all to us in glorious detail no doubt.Chris Mnoreply@blogger.com